Tracking the new economy: Using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity

Productivity Growth and the New Economy

Productivity Growth and the New Economy By

What Happens when the Technology Growth Trend Changes? : Transition Dynamics, Capital Growth and the "New Economy

The rapid increase in U.S. economic growth during the late 1990s inspired speculation that an acceleration in the rate of technological progress had given rise to an increase in potential output growth. This paper considers the transition dynamics associated with such a change using a general equilibrium framework that incorporates stochastic growth trends. The model suggests that transition dy...

What Happens When the Productivity Growth Trend Changes?

Recent evidence of an increase in the trend rate of productivity growth inspires speculation about how a change in the underlying process of technological progress might be associated with adjustment dynamics. This paper considers such dynamics in the framework of a computable general equilibrium model that incorporates stochastic growth. Simulations of the model suggest that transition dynamic...

Interpreting Productivity Growth in the New Economy: Some Agnostic Notes

The growth rate of total factor productivity seems to have increased recently, at least in the United States. Higher US productivity growth may justify higher stock market valuations than in the past and thus herald an emerging New Economy. However, the size of the estimated growth rate of total factor productivity depends on an assumption about the factor-augmenting properties of technological...